Without the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) the world will lose its safety net that stabilizes the oil market from supply disruptions and other shocks, according to Saudi independent energy think tank.

“Our analysis shows that back in 2011-2012, when Libya experienced supply disruptions, prices for crude could go far above $200 per barrel. It could happen then and it could happen now in 2018,” Adam Sieminski, the President of King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center told journalists in Riyadh, highlighting the importance of work made by OPEC.

“If it were not for the decisions made by Russia and Saudi Arabia as part of OPEC+ cooperation, in 2018 we could easily see oil rallying towards $300 per barrel,” Sieminski said as quoted by TASS.

The official also said that the organization is one of the important institutions that function as a final supplier, stressing that nearly 70 percent of OPEC available capacities accrue to Saudi Arabia.

Riyadh-based King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, or KAPSARC, is reportedly focused on independent research into global energy economics. The research center cooperates with international public policy organizations and industrial and government institutions. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that the think tank was studying the potential impact on oil markets of a breakup of the 60-year-old oil cartel.

This year has become a very volatile period for oil prices due to deep geopolitical concerns. Anti-Iranian crude-oriented sanctions announced by the US President Donald Trump sent crude oil prices higher. Production declines in Venezuela lifted crude to $86 per barrel. After the US announced milder than expected sanctions against the Islamic Republic, oil price lost nearly $30.

In an attempt to balance oil prices, OPEC together with its non-OPEC allies led by Russia added around one million barrels a day to global oil supply. The countries that committed to the agreement will curb output by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2019.

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